Hoping for October in Boston

Free Agency Types

2007-11-01T10:54:00.000-04:00

In case you haven't heard, these are the free agent types for this offseason for the guys that were on the squad last year.

Lowell: Type A
Schilling: Type A
Donnelly: Type B
Timlin: Type B
Gagne: Type B (surprise, surprise...)

The percentages of players that are Type A and Type B has been shrunk this year. Under the old rules, Timlin would have been Type A but Donnelly and Gagne would have both still been Type B.

If I had Theo's ear for an hour this offseason I'd first congratulate him on assembling one of the best teams I've seen in a long, long time. Then I'd request that he give Lowell a four year, $48 million - $52 million deal and Schilling a one year, $11 million deal with some incentives. Then, I'd humbly request that they make an effort to resign Timlin and evaluate Donnelly.

And then I'd demand they drop Gagne like it's hot.

Look for a full offseason rundown and set of prognostications later.

WORLD SERIES CHAMPS!

2007-10-29T00:23:00.000-04:00

Lester pitched fantastically well and got us (with bullpen help) to another title! I'm going to go party some more so I all I can say is pump up "Shipping Up to Boston" by the Dropkick Murphys and rock out with Ace and Bot doing a jig!

Beckett as Best

2007-10-26T09:55:00.000-04:00

From the Herald:

The legend of Josh Beckett keeps on growing. Further research by Major League Baseball determined that Beckett now ranks as the all-time postseason leader (minimum 40 innings) in opponents batting average after his win in Game 1.
Beckett, who allowed only one run on six hits in seven innings, lowered his opponents average to .159, moving ahead of George Earnshaw (.174), Mariano Rivera (.176), Sandy Koufax (.180) and Eddie Plank (.186). Beckett’s .209 opponents on-base percentage is also the lowest all-time, just ahead of Rivera’s .211 and Koufax’s .223.

The Pap-ajima show

2007-10-26T09:04:00.000-04:00

"This was the Pap-ajima show tonight,'' starter Curt Schilling said after Boston's 2-1 victory.

Anyone have any issues with how Papelbon was handled all year, and how Okajima was handled in September? Here's how they are doing in October:

Hideki Okajima 9.2IP 5H 3BB 9K 0.00ERA 0.83WHIP
Jonathan Papelbon 7.2IP 4H 4BB 6K 0.00ERA 1.04WHIP

Francona (and whoever else was involved in the decision making) deserve a lot of credit on this one.

Nice Shot...

2007-10-20T20:52:00.000-04:00

8:53 pm: J.D. Drew all is forgiven.

Game Five: Sawx @ Tribe

2007-10-17T14:43:00.000-04:00

Josh Beckett vs. C.C. Sabathia. It all comes down to this. If we can win this one and bring it back to Boston then we have a shot. The hitters have had a great approach against Sabathia which has beaten him once. If we can keep that going then we're looking good.

In other news, do the Rockies lose baseball games? Ever? I mean they have played a full eighth of a season and lost ONE game. This is just ridiculous.

Kielty Likely Over Drew in Game 1

2007-10-11T15:05:00.000-04:00

According to the Herald,

Manager Terry Francona wasn’t ready to announce a Game 1 lineup but acknowledged Kielty was under consideration because of his past success against lefty C.C. Sabathia, who will start the opener for Cleveland at Fenway Park.

“I haven’t spoken to any players yet about what we might do roster-wise or lineup-wise, (but) Bobby certainly has had some success against Sabathia,” Francona said.

Ronnie Mac should definitely get the start over JD when Sabathia pitches, and it has little to do with a few ancient AB's.

Here is Kielty's 3-year line vs. lefties: .313/.372/.494 (.866)

Here is Drew's: .234/.338/.347 (.685)

In fact, Kielty should probably pinch-hit for Drew in any meaningful late-inning situation vs. any lefty reliever, and particulaly against Perez who has an insane platoon split.

An Open Letter to Eric Kuselias

2007-10-10T16:23:00.000-04:00

I pity your soul, Eric. You crossed the line from favorites to chumps in my mind today. Today on First and 10 you were critiquing the ALCS and pointing out holes in each team's line-ups. I am in no way naive enough to believe that the Red Sox are invincible, have no weaknesses, or are even immeasurably better than the Indians or anyone else for that matter. That's baseball. And that's why we love it.

However, you pointed out a few facts that are inexcusably wrong. You brought up that Manny Ramirez was still injured. Wrong. Where were you last Friday night? Obviously, not in Boston because you would have seen an object launched into space that still has not returned to Earth's surface.

I understand that you are often forced to up the ante with such a blowhard sitting across from you. Skip Bayless may be one of the most narrow-minded sports commentators and reporters I have ever had the misfortune of seeing. I would have expected his attitude from a bigot or a politician, but not someone getting paid to write about sports.

But you on the other hand are different. You fill in for people on ESPN Radio and I actually prefer you to many of the regular hosts and religiously listen to The Sportsbash. But to accuse the Red Sox of having inadequate middle relief is simply wrong. Try this: Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okijima, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, and Hideki Okijima. Heck, when we decide a game is hopeless we throw in a former-Cy Young-winning closer: Eric Gagne. Our bullpen (meaning all of them) was statistically the best over the course of the entire season. It's just a fact.

I am writing this because I labor away day after day and still follow sports religiously and am outright ashamed when commentators get stuff that wrong. And I'm writing this to make an observation about how excellent out bullpen is. So please, take some notice. We have a great bullpen and Manny Ramirez is a great hitter. And he is playing. If you want to pick on someone, go after J.D. Drew whose season averages look bad enough that its perfect for mid-afternoon sports talk fodder.

Nevermind that over the past two months he has had numbers similar to Alex Rodriguez.

Better luck next time,

A Blessed Red Sox Fan

Wake Us for Game Four?

2007-10-10T09:37:00.000-04:00

When it comes to game four of the ALCS, the Red Sox have an interesting choice to make. Assuming he is able, should Tim Wakefield start or should the Sox pitch Josh Beckett on three days rest?

Pros of starting Wakefield / Cons of starting Beckett:

Beckett would get 5 days rest for his 2nd start, instead of 3.
Schilling would get 6 days rest for his 2nd start, instead of 5.
Dice-K would get 5 days rest for his 2nd start, instead of 4.
Historically, pitchers have not been at their best in the postseason on 3 days rest.
If the Red Sox win in 7 games, Beckett could start game 1 of the World Series.

Pros of starting Beckett / Cons of starting Wakefield

Wakefield has not pitched since Sept. 29, and has been nursing a balky back.
Beckett on 3 days rest may be better than Wakefield, even if Beckett is not at his 100% best.
Beckett pitched a complete game shutout (5H, 2BB, 9K, 107P) on 3 days rest in the 2003 World Series against the Yankees.
Beckett could make 3 starts, including a potential game 7 on normal rest, instead of Dice-K starting a game 7.

Comments?

The Adventures of C. Montague Schilling & Sons

2007-10-09T17:07:00.000-04:00

It's official: ESPN reports that Curt Schilling will pitch Game 2 of the ALCS against Cleveland. The game will be played in Fenway Park. Presumably, Dice-K will follow him in Game 3. I'm thinking this extra rest will be a good thing for Dice.

Don't Blame A-Rod This Year

2007-10-09T12:49:00.000-04:00

Guess who was dead last in OPS among Yankees with at least 8 plate appearances in the ALDS? Cap'n Intangibles at .353 was worse than the Sox lowest OPS player in the ALDS -- Drew at .364. And at least Drew had 3 RBI vs. 1 for the Teflon Yankee.

The Amazing Mr. Ortiz

2007-10-09T10:56:00.000-04:00

Feast on the Papi line from the ALDS:

.714/.846/1.571 (2.418) 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Manny also had a monster line, suffering only in comparison to Ortiz:

.375/.615/1.125 (1.740) 3 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI

Honorable mention, Mike Lowell:

.333/.264/.556 (.919) 1 R, 3 RBI

J.D. Drew was last among starters with a .364 OPS, but still drove in 3 runs (tied for 2nd with Ortiz and Lowell).

Hope for Drew

2007-10-09T10:11:00.000-04:00

Mike Lowell has been one of the bright spots for the Red Sox in 2007, while J.D. Drew has probably been the biggest disappointment. As a result, there seems to be a groundswell of support to resign Lowell (34 next year), and a wish that there was some way to ditch the remaining three years on Drew's contract (32 next year).

I'd like to present a few facts and figures here. The purpose is in no way to detract from Mike Lowell's contributions this year, but to give the Sox faithful some reason to have hope for Drew in the coming years.

Lowell has often come up in discussions for team MVP even though his 2007 OPS (.879) was .187 less than Ortiz (1.066). Drew's 2007 OPS (.796) was only .083 less than Lowell's. So, the difference between Lowell and Ortiz was more than twice the difference between Drew and Lowell. Or, to put it another way, Lowell's offense was much closer to Drew's than to Ortiz's.
The younger Drew has a career OPS of .890 (including 2007), while Lowell's is .812. So, any regression to the mean strongly favors Drew next year.
When Lowell was 31 (same age as Drew this year), he had an off year far worse than Drew's 2007. In 2005 Lowell's OPS was .658, vs. 796 for Drew this year. That is why the Marlins insisted that the Red Sox take Mike Lowell as part of the price for getting Josh Beckett.

So, if Drew can stay healthy (admittedly a big if), there is every reason to expect J.J. Drew to significantly outperform Mike Lowell over the next three years. Not sayin' don't sign Lowell -- just sayin' be patient with Drew.

Surgeon on the Mound, Patience at the Plate

2007-10-04T09:05:00.000-04:00

All facets of the Red Sox game were in post-season form last night. This is from Peter Gammons blog:

[Beckett] gave up a leadoff single to Chone Figgins. After that, he faced 30 batters, threw 27 first-pitch strikes, and to those 30 hitters did not throw a ball to 16 of them. "I had great defense behind me, I tried to pitch to it," said Beckett.

But while Beckett may be the pitcher you'd most want pitching the most important game, the Boston approach against John Lackey was huge. On Monday, hitting coach Dave Magadan went through advance guru Dana Levangie's report and begged hitters to try to lay off Lackey's slider and curveball out of the strike zone.

Not one Boston hitter swung at a pitch out of the strike zone from Lackey.

Read that last line again : Not one Boston hitter swung at a pitch out of the strike zone from Lackey. Amazing.

Said hitting coach Dave Magadan, “I wasn’t sitting there thinking, ‘We aren’t swinging at a bad pitch,’ but that’s the way we are most of the time. It’s impressive, especially with a guy like Lackey, who lives with guys chasing breaking balls out of the zone. We did a really good job of making him get that up and seeing the ball out of his hand.”

Also, only Christy Mathewson (4) has more post-season shutouts than Beckett (3). Two others are tied (Whitey Ford and Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown).

Beckett's game score of 87 is the best by any starter in the post-season since -- Josh Beckett (93) for the Marlins in 2003.

ALDS Playoff Roster

2007-10-02T15:20:00.000-04:00

Regulars:
Jason Varitek
Kevin Youkilis
Dustin Pedroia
Julio Lugo
Mike Lowell
J.D. Drew
Coco Crisp
Manny Ramirez
David Ortiz

Bench:
Eric Hinske
Alex Cora
Jacoby Ellsbury
Bobby Kielty
Doug Mirabelli
Kevin Cash

Pitchers:
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Curt Schilling
Jon Lester
Jonathan Papelbon
Eric Gagne
Hideki Okajima
Mike Timlin
Manny Delcarmen
Javier Lopez

Biggest surprise: no Tim Wakefield. See article.

Other more-or-less surprises:

no Tavarez or Snyder
both Mirabelli and Cash with Wakefield out

DP: Just give him rookie of the year already...

2007-10-02T11:51:00.001-04:00

It seems like most people are calling for DP to get Rookie of the Year honors based on his exceptional defense. He plays a skill position extremely well (Gold Glove-type well, actually) and hits extremely well.

DP got of to a rough start in April but since then has completely turned it around. Offensively, there are three powerhouses at 2B in baseball right now: Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, and our boy DP. Consider these numbers: .317 BA, .380 OBP (Polanco is first at .388), and in nearly the same number of place appearences (520 for DP, 530 for Utley), he has struck out less than half as many times (42 vs. 89). Bottom line: he does what a #2 needs to do. He walks some, he gets on base a lot, and he doesn't strike out.

And he's a cool guy...for what it's worth.

Mr. Ortiz, Could you please have a down year next season too?

2007-10-02T10:23:00.000-04:00

Maybe the general perception that David Ortiz has had an off season in 2007 is because he hasn't had his usual quota of walkoff hits. But let's consider the facts ...

He had the best OPS of his career -- 1.066 vs. 1.049 last year. This was second in the league behind only ARod at 1.067. That's right, Mr. Consensus MVP was only .001 ahead of Ortiz in OPS. Furthermore Ortiz led ARod by a wide margin in OBP, which is the more valuable component of OPS.

He had the best batting average of his career -- .332 vs. .301 in 2004. (He hit .327 his rookie year in limited action). His 2007 batting average was 5th in the league.

He had the best on-base percentage of his career -- .455 vs. .413 last year. This led the league by a wide margin -- Ordonez was second at .434.

He set the all time record for doubles in a season by a DH (52). Only Ordonez had more this season (54).

He led the league in extra base hits with 88 (ARod was second with 85).

He led the league in RC/27 (runs created per 27 outs) at 9.97 (ARod again second at 9.70).

As Bob Ryan pointed out in his blog, Papi is the first Red Sox to have 80 or more extra base hits in four consecutive seasons. Not Jim Rice, Double X, Fred Lynn, Yaz or Manny did that. Not even Teddy Ballgame. ARod has done it four times in his career, but not consecutively.

Papi and Jack Rabbit Honored

2007-10-02T08:54:00.000-04:00

David Ortiz was named AL Player of the Month and Jacoby Ellsbury was named AL Rookie of the Month for September, according to a statement released by the Red Sox.

Ortiz hit .396 with nine home runs and 27 RBIs in 26 games. He led the league with an .824 slugging percentage and had 21 extra base hits. This is the third time Ortiz has won the award.

Called up for the second time this season on Sept. 1, Ellsbury hit .361 with 17 RBIs in 26 games during September.

From article in Boston Globe.

Daily Magic Number and Playoff Report

2007-09-30T12:26:00.000-04:00

Updated Sunday morning (9/30), to include games of 9/29

Sox won, 1 remaining

Sox Clinch Top Seed

The Sox have now clinched everything there is to clinch right now. (Well, I suppose they could win today and get real best record, rather than tie-breaker best record.) Boston will have home field throughout the playoffs (thanks to the AL win in the All-Star game).

The Sox have chosen ALDS Series B (the long series). This lets Beckett and the #2 starter pitch twice each, the #3 once, and no #4 is needed. Who will be #2? I'm thinking it's Schilling, even though DiceK pitched well his last start and he's sorta been the #2 most of the season. Schilling has pitched well for a while now, and I don't think they'd give him today off if he wasn't pitching again until Sunday. This also would slate Schilling to pitch a possible game 5 (on normal rest), and he's the one with the big game rep.

Based on the way the Angels have set their rotation, here are the likely matchups:

Lackey @ Beckett
Escobar @ Schilling
Matsuzaka @ Weaver
Beckett @ Lackey (if necessary)
Escobar @ Schilling (if necessary)

Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:

Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)

Red Sox	100.00	(unchanged)
Angels	100.00	(unchanged)
Indians	100.00	(unchanged)
Yankees	100.00	(unchanged)
Cubs	100.00	(unchanged)
DBacks	100.00	(unchanged)
Padres	75.15	(-15.46)
Mets	56.30	(+35.28)
Phillies	55.73	(-28.25)
Rockies	12.83	(+8.42)

The Padres and Phillies both missed chances to clinch yesterday. The Mets recovered to reclaim a better-than-even chance at making the playoffs. The Phillies are poised once again to tease, but ultimately disappoint, their fans.

Even for those (like me) who usually pay little attention to the NL, today will be a good day to follow, with many interesting tiebreaker possibilities still in play. It is possible that the NL will still be playing through Wednesday, and the opening of the NLDS will be delayed (if Padres lose, and Rockies, Phillies and Mets all win).

Baseball Prospectus has the chances of at least one tiebreaker game being necessary at 59.9%.

Seeding

The Sox have clinched at least a tie for best record and with it the top seed, since they hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland. With a win today (or a Cleveland loss) they would claim the undisputed best record in all of Major League Baseball.

Papelbon Doing an Irish Jig in His Underwear

2007-09-29T23:09:00.001-04:00

The clip I saw on NESN was much longer. If anyone has the long version, please let us know.

Minnesota (77-83) at Boston (93-65)

2007-09-29T13:02:00.000-04:00

7:05 ET, Timmy (16-12, 4.80 ERA) vs. Carlos Silva (13-14, 4.22 ERA)

Here it is...the beginning of meaningless baseball. We've clinched the division and now we have to duke it out with Cleveland and LA from across the nation to get the best record. Honestly, I'm on such a high right now about winning the division. I think the team is too and if we win tonight that will give us a lot of momentum heading in October.

Around the League:
Halos (Escobar) at Oakland (Braden)
MFY (Petitte) at Baltimore (Cabrera)
Tribe (Westbrook) at Kansas City (Meche)

None of the matchups look that great for us except for Cleveland's game...which is the one that matters most. Here's what the standings look like for best record:

CLE -
BOS -
LAA 2
MFY 3
DET 8 (Mathematically Eliminated)

It's definitely doable. And being able to choose which series we want has a lot of ramifications (either to help us or to try to screw someone else).

Sox Clinch - Pictures and Video

2007-09-29T09:27:00.000-04:00

Photos from the Globe

Video from the Globe

Photos from the Herald

Daily Magic Number and Playoff Report

2007-09-29T08:35:00.000-04:00

0

Updated Saturday morning (9/29), to include games of 9/28

Sox won, 2 remaining
Yankees lost, 2 remaining

Sox Clinch the AL East

A nice solid eight inning effort for Daisuke, combined with one of the more exciting 9th and 10th innings I've witnessed in the Yankees / Orioles game (sorry for yesterdays dis, Orioles) ends the suspense in the American League East. The Red Sox are the champions.

Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:

Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)

Red Sox	100.00	(unchanged)
Angels	100.00	(unchanged)
Indians	100.00	(unchanged)
Yankees	100.00	(unchanged)
Cubs	100.00	(+7.10)
DBacks	100.00	(+17.12)
Padres	90.65	(+25.04)
Phillies	83.95	(+24.87)
Mets	21.02	(-37.47)
Rockies	4.38	(-29.56)

The Brewers are now officially eliminated, and the Cubs and Snakes are in.

Among those who did not clinch, the biggest gainers yesterday were the Padres (at the Rockies expense) and the Phillies (at the Mets expense). The Rockies blinked and suddenly find themselves hanging by a thread. The Mets collapse qualifies as historic, and they have been doing it lately against some of the worst teams in the NL, and with a team that is for the most part injury free.

The American League teams are completely set, as are the first round matchups. The Red Sox will host the Angels and the Indians will host the Yankees. The host teams play games 1, 2 and 5 at home.

Seeding

Only the seeding for ALCS home field and choice of ALDS series remains to be settled.

The Sox magic number to clinch best record and top seed is now 2 against Cleveland. (Cleveland and the Sox remain tied, and the Sox hold the tiebreaker). For Cleveland to take top seed, they need to gain a game on Boston with 2 games to play.

The Sox can finish no worse than second seed. The Angels have clinched third seed, and of course the Yankees are fourth (but cannot play Boston in the first round).

Rookie of the Year

2007-09-28T17:15:00.000-04:00

I am beginning to hear an undercurrent of support for the Ray’s Delmon Young as Rookie of the Year, over our very own Little Big Man. Looking at the numbers, I can find only two areas, both counting stats, that Young has any sort of meaningful edge in:

Home runs: Young 13, Pedroia 8
RBI: Young 93, Pedroia 50

Though Young has more home runs, Pedroia actually has the higher slugging percentage: .442 to .412.

The RBI edge appears large, but Young has hit #5 almost exclusively, while Pedrioa has hit #2 about half the time, and #1 or #9 most of the rest. But here is the most telling statistic: Delmon Young has consumed over 100 more outs than has Dustin Pedroia. That is almost 2 every 3 games! Those extra home runs and rbi’s have come at a very high price.

Now let’s see where Little Big Man has the edge:

OPS: Pedroia holds a huge edge, .823 vs. .730.

Defense: Pedroia plays second base, on the right (more skilled) side of the defensive spectrum and does so at a gold glove level, according to most observers. Young play right field, a left spectrum position, and does so (at best) adequately.

Ranking by position: Among all qualifying AL second basemen, Pedroia ranks third in OPS, only .021 behind the leader (Polanco). Among all qualifying AL corner outfielders, Young ranks dead last, .292 behind the leader (Ordoñez). If you think Ordoñez is too high a standard, consider this: Young is .050 behind J. D. Drew.

It’s really no contest between the two.

Buchholz Shut Down Until Next Year

2007-09-28T17:08:00.000-04:00

The Red Sox today announced that rookie pitcher Clay Buchholz will be shut down for the rest of the season, including the postseason.

From article in Boston Globe.
And this article, quoting Francona.
And this article, quoting Theo.

Minnesota (77-82) at Boston (92-65)

2007-09-28T12:10:00.000-04:00

7:05pm ET, Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12, 4.48 ERA) vs. Kevin Slowey (4-0, 4.57 ERA)

Tonight, it's going to be all about which Dice-K we get. He's pitching on five days rest (last start 9/22 @ TB). TPTB seem to be trying to get him some extra rest heading into the playoffs so I really think his next start will really give us an indicator as to whether or not he's going to be useful this postseason.

He seems like he has the same dead-arm syndrome that Jeemer got and that many Japanese pitchers get when they cross the pond. Either way, they generally make an adjustment before their second season so I'm feeling great about him in the long run.

The MFY throw out the Moose against Jon "You're Not Our" Leicester (LEH-ster...wierd, huh?) so we've all got to hope that they get Bad Moose tonight and not Good Moose.

------------------------

Fun Fact: In the month of September, Drew is hitting with a .324 BA, .449 OBP, .544 SLG, and a .944 OPS. If only we could pro-rate his contract... I think I'll give Fat Billy a call.

“I feel pleasure” ... and so do we

2007-09-28T10:45:00.000-04:00

Hideki Okajima made a successful return to the mound Thursday night against the Twins. He looked much more like the first-half shut-down reliever that he had been in the first half than the mediocre reliever he had become as the second half dragged on through the dog days of summer.

Okajima allowed a soft one-out single to center by Michael Cuddyer, but ended his first game back after a prolonged rest period by whiffing Garrett Jones and Matthew LeCroy. LeCroy waved feebly at Okajima’s 14th and final pitch of the inning, his trademark Oki-Dokey.

“I feel pleasure to be able to get to the mound and pitch like that,” said Okajima through his interpreter, Jeff Yamaguchi. “I felt I had more energy. I’m able to throw now. Pitch by pitch, I was having a good time on the mound. I was just trying to enjoy baseball today.”

From article in Providence Journal.

Daily Magic Number and Playoff Report

2007-09-28T10:28:00.000-04:00

2

Updated Friday morning (9/28), to include games of 9/27

Sox lost, 3 remaining
Yankees won, 3 remaining

A double reverse lock yesterday – Kazmir vs. MFY with their four best hitters out and Beckett vs. Boof Bonzer with Boston at near full strength. Both were too good to be true. Beads of perspiration again appear on the foreheads of the Boston faithful (myself included). The Sox probably need to take 2 of 3, since the AAA Orioles cannot be counted on for anything.

The Sox magic number to win the division is 2. That means any combination of Sox wins and MFY losses that adds up to 2 gives the Sox the division. The Sox have already clinched at least a wild card berth.

For the Sox to lose the division:

If the Sox go 0-3, NY would have to go 2-1.
If the Sox go 1-2, NY would have to go 3-0.
If the Sox go 2-1, Boston wins the division regardless of what NY does.

Schedule:

Sox: 3 v Min
NY: 3 @ Bal

Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:

Sox to win division: 97.61% (down from 99.16%)

Sox chance of losing division: 1 in 42 (was 1 in 119)

Yankees to win division: 2.39% (up from 0.84%)

Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)

Red Sox	100.00	(unchanged)
Angels	100.00	(unchanged)
Indians	100.00	(unchanged)
Yankees	100.00	(unchanged)
Cubs	92.90	(+3.06)
DBacks	82.88	(-0.13)
Padres	65.61	(+8.41)
Phillies	59.08	(+17.33)
Mets	58.49	(-27.32)
Rockies	33.95	(+1.74)
Brewers	7.10	(-3.06)

The Braves are now officially eliminated.

Biggest loser yesterday was of course the Mets. Biggest gainer – the Phillies, who now have a better chance than the Mets. The resurgent Padres have moved their chances to nearly 2 chances in 3. The Rockies continue to win and are now at better than 1 in 3. The Cubs have moved back above 90%, and the fading Brewers have fallen below 10%

The American League teams are completely set. Only the seeding remains to be settled.

Seeding

The Sox magic number to clinch best record is now 3 against Cleveland. (Cleveland and the Sox remain tied, and the Sox hold the tiebreaker).

The magic number to clinch second-best record is 1 against the Angels. (Sox lead by 2 games).

Note: Both Cleveland and Boston hold the tiebreaker vs. the Angels, so the only way the Angels can take first seed is if they win out, and both Cleveland and the Sox lose out.

2007-09-27T17:23:00.000-04:00

Strikes fear into the hear of the MFY and their fans everywhere. This picture has been circulating the 'net and the blogosphere and is (rumor has it) the cover picture for an upcoming SI about our boy Snuffer.

A very special thanks goes out to Basegirl.

Oki Über Alles

2007-09-27T14:04:00.000-04:00

From Tito's pregame yesterday (9/26):

Francona said it "would be very important" to try and get reliever Hideki Okajima into Thursday's game against the Twins. However, Francona indicated, it was not imperative to try and get Okajima into back-to-back games before Sunday's regular-season finale.

"We'd like to pitch him again," Francona said. "But this is not a situation where he's coming back from arm surgery. We elected to take a safe route where we thought we could get him back and have him pitch a lot in the postseason."

Based on these remarks, I'd say that getting Oki ready for October has a higher priority among The Powers That Be than either nailing down the division or getting Beckett his 21st win.

Seeing that Gagné still inspires no confidence as an 8th inning guy, I have to agree with the priorities.

In other news...

Tavarez as an ERA of 9.0 in his last five appearences (9IP, 9ER). This, in my mind, makes getting Oki ready a huge priority.

Bob Ryan thinks Mike Lowell is the Red Sox MVP. It's really, really hard to argue against that. *cough*oneyeardeal*cough*

Tony Massarotti also says Shilldog should start Game 2. Much more eloquently, I might add.

According to MLB.com, Beckett has been otherworldly in September: 4-0, 2.25 ERA, 30 K's, 6 BB's.

Minnesota (77-81) at Boston (92-64)

2007-09-27T10:34:00.000-04:00

7:05pm ET, Josh Beckett (20-6, 3.14 ERA) vs. Boof Bonser (7-12, 5.09 ERA)

Seriously...you can't make this stuff up. That's his real name. The MFY have Hughes vs. Kazmir tonight in Tampa. And in case anyone hadn't noticed, we just dodged two bullets. Dan Haren pitched just prior to our series with Oakland and Santana pitches before our series with Minnesota starts. Let's hope out luck stays like from here on out.

Magic Number: 2

------------------------

In other new, Young Buck is likely out of the playoff rotation. The comeback story comes to a close, unfortunately, The good news is that he was looking better and better every start until his last one (4.1IP, 4ER, 2HR, 3BB, 9K) and even his last one had a lot of optimism. He definitely projects to be a solid #2 guy behind Buchholz which, when you consider the ridiculous rotation we project next year, makes him a much more than adequate #4 or #5 guy.

"I think the strikeouts showed the kind of stuff he has," said manager Terry Francona. "I thought early in the game his cutter was strong, tight, and good. Then he got two outs, walk, home run. Then he gets behind Piazza, 2 and 0, and throws a fastball down the middle. Again, he's still a young pitcher who's developing, and he can work himself into some binds, but his stuff is still good."
Michael Vega, Boston Globe

Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, Buchholz, Lester with Batshit and Timmy in the 'pen. Very niiiiiiiiice.

Thought from the Southern Contingent

2007-09-27T10:07:00.000-04:00

Schilling is looking good. Really good. In his last five starts, his earned runs look like this:

09/25 | Oak | 1 | 6ip
09/16 | NY | 4 | 7.2ip (game where he gave up a three run bomb to Captain Intangibles in the 7th)
09/10 | TB | 1 | 6ip
09/05 | TOR| 3 | 6ip
08/30 | NY | 2 | 7ip

He's basically a six inning pitcher which works FINE with inning eaters like Beckett, DiceK, and Timmy in the rotation and our unreasonably strong bullpen (relative to everyone else in baseball). Yes, he's going to give up hits. But he's not going to let rallies happen. He gets beat when you can eek one or two on and then bring Mr. Daaaaaamn I Look and Smell Good! up to the plate. But he's definitely a solid pitcher with a hot hand (6 K's for a soft tosser?!? Whaaaaat?!?) which is why he should definitely get the #2 spot.

And, to boot, he has a .500 batting average.

But they probably have it set up with him as the #3 behind Dice because when they set the rotation he hadn't completely implemented his new strategy which I affectionately like to call, "Pansy Pitch Domination."

FUN FACT OF THE DAY: Who leads the Red Sox in at bats and could therefore be called the team's Iron Man? (No cheating...)

HINT: Not this sock...