The Amazing Mr. Ortiz

Feast on the Papi line from the ALDS:

.714/.846/1.571 (2.418) 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Manny also had a monster line, suffering only in comparison to Ortiz:

.375/.615/1.125 (1.740) 3 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI

Honorable mention, Mike Lowell:

.333/.264/.556 (.919) 1 R, 3 RBI

J.D. Drew was last among starters with a .364 OPS, but still drove in 3 runs (tied for 2nd with Ortiz and Lowell).

Hope for Drew

Mike Lowell has been one of the bright spots for the Red Sox in 2007, while J.D. Drew has probably been the biggest disappointment. As a result, there seems to be a groundswell of support to resign Lowell (34 next year), and a wish that there was some way to ditch the remaining three years on Drew's contract (32 next year).

I'd like to present a few facts and figures here. The purpose is in no way to detract from Mike Lowell's contributions this year, but to give the Sox faithful some reason to have hope for Drew in the coming years.

1. Lowell has often come up in discussions for team MVP even though his 2007 OPS (.879) was .187 less than Ortiz (1.066). Drew's 2007 OPS (.796) was only .083 less than Lowell's. So, the difference between Lowell and Ortiz was more than twice the difference between Drew and Lowell. Or, to put it another way, Lowell's offense was much closer to Drew's than to Ortiz's.
   
   
2. The younger Drew has a career OPS of .890 (including 2007), while Lowell's is .812. So, any regression to the mean strongly favors Drew next year.
   
   
3. When Lowell was 31 (same age as Drew this year), he had an off year far worse than Drew's 2007. In 2005 Lowell's OPS was .658, vs. 796 for Drew this year. That is why the Marlins insisted that the Red Sox take Mike Lowell as part of the price for getting Josh Beckett.

So, if Drew can stay healthy (admittedly a big if), there is every reason to expect J.J. Drew to significantly outperform Mike Lowell over the next three years. Not sayin' don't sign Lowell -- just sayin' be patient with Drew.

Surgeon on the Mound, Patience at the Plate

All facets of the Red Sox game were in post-season form last night. This is from Peter Gammons blog:

[Beckett] gave up a leadoff single to Chone Figgins. After that, he faced 30 batters, threw 27 first-pitch strikes, and to those 30 hitters did not throw a ball to 16 of them. "I had great defense behind me, I tried to pitch to it," said Beckett.

But while Beckett may be the pitcher you'd most want pitching the most important game, the Boston approach against John Lackey was huge. On Monday, hitting coach Dave Magadan went through advance guru Dana Levangie's report and begged hitters to try to lay off Lackey's slider and curveball out of the strike zone.

Not one Boston hitter swung at a pitch out of the strike zone from Lackey.

Read that last line again : Not one Boston hitter swung at a pitch out of the strike zone from Lackey. Amazing.

Said hitting coach Dave Magadan, “I wasn’t sitting there thinking, ‘We aren’t swinging at a bad pitch,’ but that’s the way we are most of the time. It’s impressive, especially with a guy like Lackey, who lives with guys chasing breaking balls out of the zone. We did a really good job of making him get that up and seeing the ball out of his hand.”

Also, only Christy Mathewson (4) has more post-season shutouts than Beckett (3). Two others are tied (Whitey Ford and Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown).

Beckett's game score of 87 is the best by any starter in the post-season since -- Josh Beckett (93) for the Marlins in 2003.

ALDS Playoff Roster

Regulars:
Jason Varitek
Kevin Youkilis
Dustin Pedroia
Julio Lugo
Mike Lowell
J.D. Drew
Coco Crisp
Manny Ramirez
David Ortiz

Bench:
Eric Hinske
Alex Cora
Jacoby Ellsbury
Bobby Kielty
Doug Mirabelli
Kevin Cash

Pitchers:
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Curt Schilling
Jon Lester
Jonathan Papelbon
Eric Gagne
Hideki Okajima
Mike Timlin
Manny Delcarmen
Javier Lopez

Biggest surprise: no Tim Wakefield. See article.

Other more-or-less surprises:

• no Tavarez or Snyder
• both Mirabelli and Cash with Wakefield out

DP: Just give him rookie of the year already...

It seems like most people are calling for DP to get Rookie of the Year honors based on his exceptional defense. He plays a skill position extremely well (Gold Glove-type well, actually) and hits extremely well.

DP got of to a rough start in April but since then has completely turned it around. Offensively, there are three powerhouses at 2B in baseball right now: Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, and our boy DP. Consider these numbers: .317 BA, .380 OBP (Polanco is first at .388), and in nearly the same number of place appearences (520 for DP, 530 for Utley), he has struck out less than half as many times (42 vs. 89). Bottom line: he does what a #2 needs to do. He walks some, he gets on base a lot, and he doesn't strike out.

And he's a cool guy...for what it's worth.

Mr. Ortiz, Could you please have a down year next season too?

Maybe the general perception that David Ortiz has had an off season in 2007 is because he hasn't had his usual quota of walkoff hits. But let's consider the facts ...

He had the best OPS of his career -- 1.066 vs. 1.049 last year. This was second in the league behind only ARod at 1.067. That's right, Mr. Consensus MVP was only .001 ahead of Ortiz in OPS. Furthermore Ortiz led ARod by a wide margin in OBP, which is the more valuable component of OPS.

He had the best batting average of his career -- .332 vs. .301 in 2004. (He hit .327 his rookie year in limited action). His 2007 batting average was 5th in the league.

He had the best on-base percentage of his career -- .455 vs. .413 last year. This led the league by a wide margin -- Ordonez was second at .434.

He set the all time record for doubles in a season by a DH (52). Only Ordonez had more this season (54).

He led the league in extra base hits with 88 (ARod was second with 85).

He led the league in RC/27 (runs created per 27 outs) at 9.97 (ARod again second at 9.70).

As Bob Ryan pointed out in his blog, Papi is the first Red Sox to have 80 or more extra base hits in four consecutive seasons. Not Jim Rice, Double X, Fred Lynn, Yaz or Manny did that. Not even Teddy Ballgame. ARod has done it four times in his career, but not consecutively.

Papi and Jack Rabbit Honored

David Ortiz was named AL Player of the Month and Jacoby Ellsbury was named AL Rookie of the Month for September, according to a statement released by the Red Sox.

Ortiz hit .396 with nine home runs and 27 RBIs in 26 games. He led the league with an .824 slugging percentage and had 21 extra base hits. This is the third time Ortiz has won the award.

Called up for the second time this season on Sept. 1, Ellsbury hit .361 with 17 RBIs in 26 games during September.

From article in Boston Globe.