Daily Magic Number and Playoff Report

Updated Sunday morning (9/30), to include games of 9/29

Sox won, 1 remaining

Sox Clinch Top Seed

The Sox have now clinched everything there is to clinch right now. (Well, I suppose they could win today and get real best record, rather than tie-breaker best record.) Boston will have home field throughout the playoffs (thanks to the AL win in the All-Star game).

The Sox have chosen ALDS Series B (the long series). This lets Beckett and the #2 starter pitch twice each, the #3 once, and no #4 is needed. Who will be #2? I'm thinking it's Schilling, even though DiceK pitched well his last start and he's sorta been the #2 most of the season. Schilling has pitched well for a while now, and I don't think they'd give him today off if he wasn't pitching again until Sunday. This also would slate Schilling to pitch a possible game 5 (on normal rest), and he's the one with the big game rep.

Based on the way the Angels have set their rotation, here are the likely matchups:

Lackey @ Beckett
Escobar @ Schilling
Matsuzaka @ Weaver
Beckett @ Lackey (if necessary)
Escobar @ Schilling (if necessary)

Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:

Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)

Red Sox	100.00	(unchanged)
Angels	100.00	(unchanged)
Indians	100.00	(unchanged)
Yankees	100.00	(unchanged)
Cubs	100.00	(unchanged)
DBacks	100.00	(unchanged)
Padres	75.15	(-15.46)
Mets	56.30	(+35.28)
Phillies	55.73	(-28.25)
Rockies	12.83	(+8.42)

The Padres and Phillies both missed chances to clinch yesterday. The Mets recovered to reclaim a better-than-even chance at making the playoffs. The Phillies are poised once again to tease, but ultimately disappoint, their fans.

Even for those (like me) who usually pay little attention to the NL, today will be a good day to follow, with many interesting tiebreaker possibilities still in play. It is possible that the NL will still be playing through Wednesday, and the opening of the NLDS will be delayed (if Padres lose, and Rockies, Phillies and Mets all win).

Baseball Prospectus has the chances of at least one tiebreaker game being necessary at 59.9%.

Seeding

The Sox have clinched at least a tie for best record and with it the top seed, since they hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland. With a win today (or a Cleveland loss) they would claim the undisputed best record in all of Major League Baseball.

Papelbon Doing an Irish Jig in His Underwear

The clip I saw on NESN was much longer. If anyone has the long version, please let us know.

Minnesota (77-83) at Boston (93-65)

7:05 ET, Timmy (16-12, 4.80 ERA) vs. Carlos Silva (13-14, 4.22 ERA)

Here it is...the beginning of meaningless baseball. We've clinched the division and now we have to duke it out with Cleveland and LA from across the nation to get the best record. Honestly, I'm on such a high right now about winning the division. I think the team is too and if we win tonight that will give us a lot of momentum heading in October.

Around the League:
Halos (Escobar) at Oakland (Braden)
MFY (Petitte) at Baltimore (Cabrera)
Tribe (Westbrook) at Kansas City (Meche)

None of the matchups look that great for us except for Cleveland's game...which is the one that matters most. Here's what the standings look like for best record:

CLE -
BOS -
LAA 2
MFY 3
DET 8 (Mathematically Eliminated)

It's definitely doable. And being able to choose which series we want has a lot of ramifications (either to help us or to try to screw someone else).

Sox Clinch - Pictures and Video

Photos from the Globe

Video from the Globe

Photos from the Herald

Daily Magic Number and Playoff Report

0

Updated Saturday morning (9/29), to include games of 9/28

Sox won, 2 remaining
Yankees lost, 2 remaining

Sox Clinch the AL East

A nice solid eight inning effort for Daisuke, combined with one of the more exciting 9th and 10th innings I've witnessed in the Yankees / Orioles game (sorry for yesterdays dis, Orioles) ends the suspense in the American League East. The Red Sox are the champions.

Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:

Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)

Red Sox	100.00	(unchanged)
Angels	100.00	(unchanged)
Indians	100.00	(unchanged)
Yankees	100.00	(unchanged)
Cubs	100.00	(+7.10)
DBacks	100.00	(+17.12)
Padres	90.65	(+25.04)
Phillies	83.95	(+24.87)
Mets	21.02	(-37.47)
Rockies	4.38	(-29.56)

The Brewers are now officially eliminated, and the Cubs and Snakes are in.

Among those who did not clinch, the biggest gainers yesterday were the Padres (at the Rockies expense) and the Phillies (at the Mets expense). The Rockies blinked and suddenly find themselves hanging by a thread. The Mets collapse qualifies as historic, and they have been doing it lately against some of the worst teams in the NL, and with a team that is for the most part injury free.

The American League teams are completely set, as are the first round matchups. The Red Sox will host the Angels and the Indians will host the Yankees. The host teams play games 1, 2 and 5 at home.

Seeding

Only the seeding for ALCS home field and choice of ALDS series remains to be settled.

The Sox magic number to clinch best record and top seed is now 2 against Cleveland. (Cleveland and the Sox remain tied, and the Sox hold the tiebreaker). For Cleveland to take top seed, they need to gain a game on Boston with 2 games to play.

The Sox can finish no worse than second seed. The Angels have clinched third seed, and of course the Yankees are fourth (but cannot play Boston in the first round).

Rookie of the Year

I am beginning to hear an undercurrent of support for the Ray’s Delmon Young as Rookie of the Year, over our very own Little Big Man. Looking at the numbers, I can find only two areas, both counting stats, that Young has any sort of meaningful edge in:

Home runs: Young 13, Pedroia 8
RBI: Young 93, Pedroia 50

Though Young has more home runs, Pedroia actually has the higher slugging percentage: .442 to .412.

The RBI edge appears large, but Young has hit #5 almost exclusively, while Pedrioa has hit #2 about half the time, and #1 or #9 most of the rest. But here is the most telling statistic: Delmon Young has consumed over 100 more outs than has Dustin Pedroia. That is almost 2 every 3 games! Those extra home runs and rbi’s have come at a very high price.

Now let’s see where Little Big Man has the edge:

OPS: Pedroia holds a huge edge, .823 vs. .730.

Defense: Pedroia plays second base, on the right (more skilled) side of the defensive spectrum and does so at a gold glove level, according to most observers. Young play right field, a left spectrum position, and does so (at best) adequately.

Ranking by position: Among all qualifying AL second basemen, Pedroia ranks third in OPS, only .021 behind the leader (Polanco). Among all qualifying AL corner outfielders, Young ranks dead last, .292 behind the leader (Ordoñez). If you think Ordoñez is too high a standard, consider this: Young is .050 behind J. D. Drew.

It’s really no contest between the two.

Buchholz Shut Down Until Next Year

The Red Sox today announced that rookie pitcher Clay Buchholz will be shut down for the rest of the season, including the postseason.

From article in Boston Globe.
And this article, quoting Francona.
And this article, quoting Theo.