Updated Friday morning (9/28), to include games of 9/27
Sox lost, 3 remaining
Yankees won, 3 remaining
A double reverse lock yesterday – Kazmir vs. MFY with their four best hitters out and Beckett vs. Boof Bonzer with Boston at near full strength. Both were too good to be true. Beads of perspiration again appear on the foreheads of the Boston faithful (myself included). The Sox probably need to take 2 of 3, since the AAA Orioles cannot be counted on for anything.
The Sox magic number to win the division is 2. That means any combination of Sox wins and MFY losses that adds up to 2 gives the Sox the division. The Sox have already clinched at least a wild card berth.
For the Sox to lose the division:
If the Sox go 0-3, NY would have to go 2-1.
If the Sox go 1-2, NY would have to go 3-0.
If the Sox go 2-1, Boston wins the division regardless of what NY does.
Schedule:
Sox: 3 v Min
NY: 3 @ Bal
Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:
Sox to win division: 97.61% (down from 99.16%)
Sox chance of losing division: 1 in 42 (was 1 in 119)
Yankees to win division: 2.39% (up from 0.84%)
Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)
| Red Sox | 100.00 | (unchanged) |
| Angels | 100.00 | (unchanged) |
| Indians | 100.00 | (unchanged) |
| Yankees | 100.00 | (unchanged) |
| Cubs | 92.90 | (+3.06) |
| DBacks | 82.88 | (-0.13) |
| Padres | 65.61 | (+8.41) |
| Phillies | 59.08 | (+17.33) |
| Mets | 58.49 | (-27.32) |
| Rockies | 33.95 | (+1.74) |
| Brewers | 7.10 | (-3.06) |
The Braves are now officially eliminated.
Biggest loser yesterday was of course the Mets. Biggest gainer – the Phillies, who now have a better chance than the Mets. The resurgent Padres have moved their chances to nearly 2 chances in 3. The Rockies continue to win and are now at better than 1 in 3. The Cubs have moved back above 90%, and the fading Brewers have fallen below 10%
The American League teams are completely set. Only the seeding remains to be settled.
Seeding
The Sox magic number to clinch best record is now 3 against Cleveland. (Cleveland and the Sox remain tied, and the Sox hold the tiebreaker).
The magic number to clinch second-best record is 1 against the Angels. (Sox lead by 2 games).
Note: Both Cleveland and Boston hold the tiebreaker vs. the Angels, so the only way the Angels can take first seed is if they win out, and both Cleveland and the Sox lose out.
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