Daily Magic Number and Playoff Report

Updated Sunday morning (9/30), to include games of 9/29

Sox won, 1 remaining

Sox Clinch Top Seed

The Sox have now clinched everything there is to clinch right now. (Well, I suppose they could win today and get real best record, rather than tie-breaker best record.) Boston will have home field throughout the playoffs (thanks to the AL win in the All-Star game).

The Sox have chosen ALDS Series B (the long series). This lets Beckett and the #2 starter pitch twice each, the #3 once, and no #4 is needed. Who will be #2? I'm thinking it's Schilling, even though DiceK pitched well his last start and he's sorta been the #2 most of the season. Schilling has pitched well for a while now, and I don't think they'd give him today off if he wasn't pitching again until Sunday. This also would slate Schilling to pitch a possible game 5 (on normal rest), and he's the one with the big game rep.

Based on the way the Angels have set their rotation, here are the likely matchups:

Lackey @ Beckett
Escobar @ Schilling
Matsuzaka @ Weaver
Beckett @ Lackey (if necessary)
Escobar @ Schilling (if necessary)

Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:

Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)

Red Sox	100.00	(unchanged)
Angels	100.00	(unchanged)
Indians	100.00	(unchanged)
Yankees	100.00	(unchanged)
Cubs	100.00	(unchanged)
DBacks	100.00	(unchanged)
Padres	75.15	(-15.46)
Mets	56.30	(+35.28)
Phillies	55.73	(-28.25)
Rockies	12.83	(+8.42)

The Padres and Phillies both missed chances to clinch yesterday. The Mets recovered to reclaim a better-than-even chance at making the playoffs. The Phillies are poised once again to tease, but ultimately disappoint, their fans.

Even for those (like me) who usually pay little attention to the NL, today will be a good day to follow, with many interesting tiebreaker possibilities still in play. It is possible that the NL will still be playing through Wednesday, and the opening of the NLDS will be delayed (if Padres lose, and Rockies, Phillies and Mets all win).

Baseball Prospectus has the chances of at least one tiebreaker game being necessary at 59.9%.

Seeding

The Sox have clinched at least a tie for best record and with it the top seed, since they hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland. With a win today (or a Cleveland loss) they would claim the undisputed best record in all of Major League Baseball.

Papelbon Doing an Irish Jig in His Underwear

The clip I saw on NESN was much longer. If anyone has the long version, please let us know.

Minnesota (77-83) at Boston (93-65)

7:05 ET, Timmy (16-12, 4.80 ERA) vs. Carlos Silva (13-14, 4.22 ERA)

Here it is...the beginning of meaningless baseball. We've clinched the division and now we have to duke it out with Cleveland and LA from across the nation to get the best record. Honestly, I'm on such a high right now about winning the division. I think the team is too and if we win tonight that will give us a lot of momentum heading in October.

Around the League:
Halos (Escobar) at Oakland (Braden)
MFY (Petitte) at Baltimore (Cabrera)
Tribe (Westbrook) at Kansas City (Meche)

None of the matchups look that great for us except for Cleveland's game...which is the one that matters most. Here's what the standings look like for best record:

CLE -
BOS -
LAA 2
MFY 3
DET 8 (Mathematically Eliminated)

It's definitely doable. And being able to choose which series we want has a lot of ramifications (either to help us or to try to screw someone else).

Sox Clinch - Pictures and Video

Photos from the Globe

Video from the Globe

Photos from the Herald

Daily Magic Number and Playoff Report

0

Updated Saturday morning (9/29), to include games of 9/28

Sox won, 2 remaining
Yankees lost, 2 remaining

Sox Clinch the AL East

A nice solid eight inning effort for Daisuke, combined with one of the more exciting 9th and 10th innings I've witnessed in the Yankees / Orioles game (sorry for yesterdays dis, Orioles) ends the suspense in the American League East. The Red Sox are the champions.

Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:

Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)

Red Sox	100.00	(unchanged)
Angels	100.00	(unchanged)
Indians	100.00	(unchanged)
Yankees	100.00	(unchanged)
Cubs	100.00	(+7.10)
DBacks	100.00	(+17.12)
Padres	90.65	(+25.04)
Phillies	83.95	(+24.87)
Mets	21.02	(-37.47)
Rockies	4.38	(-29.56)

The Brewers are now officially eliminated, and the Cubs and Snakes are in.

Among those who did not clinch, the biggest gainers yesterday were the Padres (at the Rockies expense) and the Phillies (at the Mets expense). The Rockies blinked and suddenly find themselves hanging by a thread. The Mets collapse qualifies as historic, and they have been doing it lately against some of the worst teams in the NL, and with a team that is for the most part injury free.

The American League teams are completely set, as are the first round matchups. The Red Sox will host the Angels and the Indians will host the Yankees. The host teams play games 1, 2 and 5 at home.

Seeding

Only the seeding for ALCS home field and choice of ALDS series remains to be settled.

The Sox magic number to clinch best record and top seed is now 2 against Cleveland. (Cleveland and the Sox remain tied, and the Sox hold the tiebreaker). For Cleveland to take top seed, they need to gain a game on Boston with 2 games to play.

The Sox can finish no worse than second seed. The Angels have clinched third seed, and of course the Yankees are fourth (but cannot play Boston in the first round).

Rookie of the Year

I am beginning to hear an undercurrent of support for the Ray’s Delmon Young as Rookie of the Year, over our very own Little Big Man. Looking at the numbers, I can find only two areas, both counting stats, that Young has any sort of meaningful edge in:

Home runs: Young 13, Pedroia 8
RBI: Young 93, Pedroia 50

Though Young has more home runs, Pedroia actually has the higher slugging percentage: .442 to .412.

The RBI edge appears large, but Young has hit #5 almost exclusively, while Pedrioa has hit #2 about half the time, and #1 or #9 most of the rest. But here is the most telling statistic: Delmon Young has consumed over 100 more outs than has Dustin Pedroia. That is almost 2 every 3 games! Those extra home runs and rbi’s have come at a very high price.

Now let’s see where Little Big Man has the edge:

OPS: Pedroia holds a huge edge, .823 vs. .730.

Defense: Pedroia plays second base, on the right (more skilled) side of the defensive spectrum and does so at a gold glove level, according to most observers. Young play right field, a left spectrum position, and does so (at best) adequately.

Ranking by position: Among all qualifying AL second basemen, Pedroia ranks third in OPS, only .021 behind the leader (Polanco). Among all qualifying AL corner outfielders, Young ranks dead last, .292 behind the leader (Ordoñez). If you think Ordoñez is too high a standard, consider this: Young is .050 behind J. D. Drew.

It’s really no contest between the two.

Buchholz Shut Down Until Next Year

The Red Sox today announced that rookie pitcher Clay Buchholz will be shut down for the rest of the season, including the postseason.

From article in Boston Globe.
And this article, quoting Francona.
And this article, quoting Theo.

Minnesota (77-82) at Boston (92-65)

7:05pm ET, Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12, 4.48 ERA) vs. Kevin Slowey (4-0, 4.57 ERA)

Tonight, it's going to be all about which Dice-K we get. He's pitching on five days rest (last start 9/22 @ TB). TPTB seem to be trying to get him some extra rest heading into the playoffs so I really think his next start will really give us an indicator as to whether or not he's going to be useful this postseason.

He seems like he has the same dead-arm syndrome that Jeemer got and that many Japanese pitchers get when they cross the pond. Either way, they generally make an adjustment before their second season so I'm feeling great about him in the long run.

The MFY throw out the Moose against Jon "You're Not Our" Leicester (LEH-ster...wierd, huh?) so we've all got to hope that they get Bad Moose tonight and not Good Moose.

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Fun Fact: In the month of September, Drew is hitting with a .324 BA, .449 OBP, .544 SLG, and a .944 OPS. If only we could pro-rate his contract... I think I'll give Fat Billy a call.

“I feel pleasure” ... and so do we

Hideki Okajima made a successful return to the mound Thursday night against the Twins. He looked much more like the first-half shut-down reliever that he had been in the first half than the mediocre reliever he had become as the second half dragged on through the dog days of summer.

Okajima allowed a soft one-out single to center by Michael Cuddyer, but ended his first game back after a prolonged rest period by whiffing Garrett Jones and Matthew LeCroy. LeCroy waved feebly at Okajima’s 14th and final pitch of the inning, his trademark Oki-Dokey.

“I feel pleasure to be able to get to the mound and pitch like that,” said Okajima through his interpreter, Jeff Yamaguchi. “I felt I had more energy. I’m able to throw now. Pitch by pitch, I was having a good time on the mound. I was just trying to enjoy baseball today.”

From article in Providence Journal.

Daily Magic Number and Playoff Report

2

Updated Friday morning (9/28), to include games of 9/27

Sox lost, 3 remaining
Yankees won, 3 remaining

A double reverse lock yesterday – Kazmir vs. MFY with their four best hitters out and Beckett vs. Boof Bonzer with Boston at near full strength. Both were too good to be true. Beads of perspiration again appear on the foreheads of the Boston faithful (myself included). The Sox probably need to take 2 of 3, since the AAA Orioles cannot be counted on for anything.

The Sox magic number to win the division is 2. That means any combination of Sox wins and MFY losses that adds up to 2 gives the Sox the division. The Sox have already clinched at least a wild card berth.

For the Sox to lose the division:

If the Sox go 0-3, NY would have to go 2-1.
If the Sox go 1-2, NY would have to go 3-0.
If the Sox go 2-1, Boston wins the division regardless of what NY does.

Schedule:

Sox: 3 v Min
NY: 3 @ Bal

Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:

Sox to win division: 97.61% (down from 99.16%)

Sox chance of losing division: 1 in 42 (was 1 in 119)

Yankees to win division: 2.39% (up from 0.84%)

Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)

Red Sox	100.00	(unchanged)
Angels	100.00	(unchanged)
Indians	100.00	(unchanged)
Yankees	100.00	(unchanged)
Cubs	92.90	(+3.06)
DBacks	82.88	(-0.13)
Padres	65.61	(+8.41)
Phillies	59.08	(+17.33)
Mets	58.49	(-27.32)
Rockies	33.95	(+1.74)
Brewers	7.10	(-3.06)

The Braves are now officially eliminated.

Biggest loser yesterday was of course the Mets. Biggest gainer – the Phillies, who now have a better chance than the Mets. The resurgent Padres have moved their chances to nearly 2 chances in 3. The Rockies continue to win and are now at better than 1 in 3. The Cubs have moved back above 90%, and the fading Brewers have fallen below 10%

The American League teams are completely set. Only the seeding remains to be settled.

Seeding

The Sox magic number to clinch best record is now 3 against Cleveland. (Cleveland and the Sox remain tied, and the Sox hold the tiebreaker).

The magic number to clinch second-best record is 1 against the Angels. (Sox lead by 2 games).

Note: Both Cleveland and Boston hold the tiebreaker vs. the Angels, so the only way the Angels can take first seed is if they win out, and both Cleveland and the Sox lose out.

Strikes fear into the hear of the MFY and their fans everywhere. This picture has been circulating the 'net and the blogosphere and is (rumor has it) the cover picture for an upcoming SI about our boy Snuffer.

A very special thanks goes out to Basegirl.

Oki Über Alles

From Tito's pregame yesterday (9/26):

Francona said it "would be very important" to try and get reliever Hideki Okajima into Thursday's game against the Twins. However, Francona indicated, it was not imperative to try and get Okajima into back-to-back games before Sunday's regular-season finale.

"We'd like to pitch him again," Francona said. "But this is not a situation where he's coming back from arm surgery. We elected to take a safe route where we thought we could get him back and have him pitch a lot in the postseason."

Based on these remarks, I'd say that getting Oki ready for October has a higher priority among The Powers That Be than either nailing down the division or getting Beckett his 21st win.

Seeing that Gagné still inspires no confidence as an 8th inning guy, I have to agree with the priorities.

In other news...

Tavarez as an ERA of 9.0 in his last five appearences (9IP, 9ER). This, in my mind, makes getting Oki ready a huge priority.

Bob Ryan thinks Mike Lowell is the Red Sox MVP. It's really, really hard to argue against that. *cough*oneyeardeal*cough*

Tony Massarotti also says Shilldog should start Game 2. Much more eloquently, I might add.

According to MLB.com, Beckett has been otherworldly in September: 4-0, 2.25 ERA, 30 K's, 6 BB's.

Minnesota (77-81) at Boston (92-64)

7:05pm ET, Josh Beckett (20-6, 3.14 ERA) vs. Boof Bonser (7-12, 5.09 ERA)

Seriously...you can't make this stuff up. That's his real name. The MFY have Hughes vs. Kazmir tonight in Tampa. And in case anyone hadn't noticed, we just dodged two bullets. Dan Haren pitched just prior to our series with Oakland and Santana pitches before our series with Minnesota starts. Let's hope out luck stays like from here on out.

Magic Number: 2

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In other new, Young Buck is likely out of the playoff rotation. The comeback story comes to a close, unfortunately, The good news is that he was looking better and better every start until his last one (4.1IP, 4ER, 2HR, 3BB, 9K) and even his last one had a lot of optimism. He definitely projects to be a solid #2 guy behind Buchholz which, when you consider the ridiculous rotation we project next year, makes him a much more than adequate #4 or #5 guy.

"I think the strikeouts showed the kind of stuff he has," said manager Terry Francona. "I thought early in the game his cutter was strong, tight, and good. Then he got two outs, walk, home run. Then he gets behind Piazza, 2 and 0, and throws a fastball down the middle. Again, he's still a young pitcher who's developing, and he can work himself into some binds, but his stuff is still good."
Michael Vega, Boston Globe

Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling, Buchholz, Lester with Batshit and Timmy in the 'pen. Very niiiiiiiiice.

Thought from the Southern Contingent

Schilling is looking good. Really good. In his last five starts, his earned runs look like this:

09/25 | Oak | 1 | 6ip
09/16 | NY | 4 | 7.2ip (game where he gave up a three run bomb to Captain Intangibles in the 7th)
09/10 | TB | 1 | 6ip
09/05 | TOR| 3 | 6ip
08/30 | NY | 2 | 7ip

He's basically a six inning pitcher which works FINE with inning eaters like Beckett, DiceK, and Timmy in the rotation and our unreasonably strong bullpen (relative to everyone else in baseball). Yes, he's going to give up hits. But he's not going to let rallies happen. He gets beat when you can eek one or two on and then bring Mr. Daaaaaamn I Look and Smell Good! up to the plate. But he's definitely a solid pitcher with a hot hand (6 K's for a soft tosser?!? Whaaaaat?!?) which is why he should definitely get the #2 spot.

And, to boot, he has a .500 batting average.

But they probably have it set up with him as the #3 behind Dice because when they set the rotation he hadn't completely implemented his new strategy which I affectionately like to call, "Pansy Pitch Domination."

FUN FACT OF THE DAY: Who leads the Red Sox in at bats and could therefore be called the team's Iron Man? (No cheating...)

HINT: Not this sock...