Daily Magic Number and Playoff Report

0

Updated Saturday morning (9/29), to include games of 9/28

Sox won, 2 remaining
Yankees lost, 2 remaining

Sox Clinch the AL East

A nice solid eight inning effort for Daisuke, combined with one of the more exciting 9th and 10th innings I've witnessed in the Yankees / Orioles game (sorry for yesterdays dis, Orioles) ends the suspense in the American League East. The Red Sox are the champions.

Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:

Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)

Red Sox	100.00	(unchanged)
Angels	100.00	(unchanged)
Indians	100.00	(unchanged)
Yankees	100.00	(unchanged)
Cubs	100.00	(+7.10)
DBacks	100.00	(+17.12)
Padres	90.65	(+25.04)
Phillies	83.95	(+24.87)
Mets	21.02	(-37.47)
Rockies	4.38	(-29.56)

The Brewers are now officially eliminated, and the Cubs and Snakes are in.

Among those who did not clinch, the biggest gainers yesterday were the Padres (at the Rockies expense) and the Phillies (at the Mets expense). The Rockies blinked and suddenly find themselves hanging by a thread. The Mets collapse qualifies as historic, and they have been doing it lately against some of the worst teams in the NL, and with a team that is for the most part injury free.

The American League teams are completely set, as are the first round matchups. The Red Sox will host the Angels and the Indians will host the Yankees. The host teams play games 1, 2 and 5 at home.

Seeding

Only the seeding for ALCS home field and choice of ALDS series remains to be settled.

The Sox magic number to clinch best record and top seed is now 2 against Cleveland. (Cleveland and the Sox remain tied, and the Sox hold the tiebreaker). For Cleveland to take top seed, they need to gain a game on Boston with 2 games to play.

The Sox can finish no worse than second seed. The Angels have clinched third seed, and of course the Yankees are fourth (but cannot play Boston in the first round).