Sox won, 1 remaining
Sox Clinch Top Seed
The Sox have now clinched everything there is to clinch right now. (Well, I suppose they could win today and get real best record, rather than tie-breaker best record.) Boston will have home field throughout the playoffs (thanks to the AL win in the All-Star game).
The Sox have chosen ALDS Series B (the long series). This lets Beckett and the #2 starter pitch twice each, the #3 once, and no #4 is needed. Who will be #2? I'm thinking it's Schilling, even though DiceK pitched well his last start and he's sorta been the #2 most of the season. Schilling has pitched well for a while now, and I don't think they'd give him today off if he wasn't pitching again until Sunday. This also would slate Schilling to pitch a possible game 5 (on normal rest), and he's the one with the big game rep.
Based on the way the Angels have set their rotation, here are the likely matchups:
Lackey @ Beckett
Escobar @ Schilling
Matsuzaka @ Weaver
Beckett @ Lackey (if necessary)
Escobar @ Schilling (if necessary)
Baseball Prospectus simulation odds:
Overall playoff chance standings, for all teams with at least a 1 in 10,000 chance (change from previous report in parentheses)
| Red Sox | 100.00 | (unchanged) |
| Angels | 100.00 | (unchanged) |
| Indians | 100.00 | (unchanged) |
| Yankees | 100.00 | (unchanged) |
| Cubs | 100.00 | (unchanged) |
| DBacks | 100.00 | (unchanged) |
| Padres | 75.15 | (-15.46) |
| Mets | 56.30 | (+35.28) |
| Phillies | 55.73 | (-28.25) |
| Rockies | 12.83 | (+8.42) |
The Padres and Phillies both missed chances to clinch yesterday. The Mets recovered to reclaim a better-than-even chance at making the playoffs. The Phillies are poised once again to tease, but ultimately disappoint, their fans.
Even for those (like me) who usually pay little attention to the NL, today will be a good day to follow, with many interesting tiebreaker possibilities still in play. It is possible that the NL will still be playing through Wednesday, and the opening of the NLDS will be delayed (if Padres lose, and Rockies, Phillies and Mets all win).
Baseball Prospectus has the chances of at least one tiebreaker game being necessary at 59.9%.
Seeding
The Sox have clinched at least a tie for best record and with it the top seed, since they hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland. With a win today (or a Cleveland loss) they would claim the undisputed best record in all of Major League Baseball.
No comments:
Post a Comment