Hope for Drew

Mike Lowell has been one of the bright spots for the Red Sox in 2007, while J.D. Drew has probably been the biggest disappointment. As a result, there seems to be a groundswell of support to resign Lowell (34 next year), and a wish that there was some way to ditch the remaining three years on Drew's contract (32 next year).

I'd like to present a few facts and figures here. The purpose is in no way to detract from Mike Lowell's contributions this year, but to give the Sox faithful some reason to have hope for Drew in the coming years.

1. Lowell has often come up in discussions for team MVP even though his 2007 OPS (.879) was .187 less than Ortiz (1.066). Drew's 2007 OPS (.796) was only .083 less than Lowell's. So, the difference between Lowell and Ortiz was more than twice the difference between Drew and Lowell. Or, to put it another way, Lowell's offense was much closer to Drew's than to Ortiz's.
   
   
2. The younger Drew has a career OPS of .890 (including 2007), while Lowell's is .812. So, any regression to the mean strongly favors Drew next year.
   
   
3. When Lowell was 31 (same age as Drew this year), he had an off year far worse than Drew's 2007. In 2005 Lowell's OPS was .658, vs. 796 for Drew this year. That is why the Marlins insisted that the Red Sox take Mike Lowell as part of the price for getting Josh Beckett.

So, if Drew can stay healthy (admittedly a big if), there is every reason to expect J.J. Drew to significantly outperform Mike Lowell over the next three years. Not sayin' don't sign Lowell -- just sayin' be patient with Drew.